DTN Midday Grain Comments     09/18 12:08

   Grains Mixed at Midday

   The mixed trade at midday has corn near the daily highs, beans near the lows.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   

   

   The U.S. stock market is lower with the Dow 50 lower. The dollar index is 10 
points higher. Interest rate products are higher. Energies are lower with crude 
down $0.80. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are higher with gold up 
$3.

   CORN

   Corn is near the daily highs at midday up 2 to 3 cents, which has us up 
around a nickel from the overnight lows. Weather remains a short-term non-issue 
with warm conditions and some wet weather in areas to move along late crop 
development and maturity before trending drier towards October. Corn basis is 
expected to continue to see pressure with harvest underway in more areas. 
Ethanol margins have improved but remain soft with the weekly report expected 
to show steady to lower production and stocks. On the December contract, 
support is at the 20-day at 3.65 with the upper Bollinger Band above trade at 
3.77. 

   SOYBEANS

   Soybean trade is 5 to 6 lower at midday in slow trade with futures near the 
daily lows nearly a dime off the high. Meal is $2.50 lower with bean oil 
slightly higher. Crush margins remain good, but the bull argument needs a 
positive export story. A positive export story obviously needs China coming 
forward. Economically U.S. export competitiveness is improving, which may be 
just as important as trade negotiations to get some business done. Bean basis 
remains flat in the interior. South American currencies remain weak as planting 
season draws closer with dry weather to start. On the November chart we near 
support at the 100-day at $8.86 and the upper Bollinger band at 8.98, and the 
200-day at 9.15 as resistance. 

   WHEAT

   Wheat trade is 3 to 6 cents higher with trade at midday back to the upper 
part of our weekly range. The Kansas City/Chicago spread is more than 80 cents. 
The corn/HRW spread is hanging around the 35-40-cent area. So Kansas City wheat 
is competitive on the world market but we need to see the business and more 
buyers to move the board out away from our lows with feed competitiveness still 
in place for the Southern Plains. The December Kansas City chart support is at 
the 20-day at $3.99 1/2, with resistance at the upper Bollinger Band at 4.13.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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